Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c78…f0d7
crypto · 31 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$401 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$393 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$61
Realized−$393
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage96d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$163
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Malawi 7¢ 10¢ $36 $49 +$13 (+35%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 6¢ 6¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Bitcoin above 74,400 on April 30, 12AM ET? No 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs Heroic 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? No 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$226 +442%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -60%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin above 74,400 on April 30, 12AM ET? Apr 30 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 30 $27 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 26 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 20 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 2? Apr 03 $4 $0 +3%
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be between Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 29 $22 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 11 $100 +$242 +242%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $100 +$75 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 57% −$420
other 28% +$83
world 8% −$3
sports 7% −$42
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Malawi 7¢ $37 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $13 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 17h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 17h
Bitcoin above 74,400 on April 30, 12AM ET? BUY No 5¢ $11 45d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $12 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $22 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $15 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $10 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 55d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 73d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 BUY Heroic 76¢ $4 73d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 2? BUY No 97¢ $4 73d
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be between BUY No 100¢ $1 73d
Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 19¢ $55 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $22 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $100 77d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 87d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $100 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $44 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +94.0% +75.5% 33% 33% +115.8%
≤30d 3 +94.0% +75.5% 33% 33% +115.8%
≤90d 22 -62.3% -65.9% 14% 5% -52.5%
all 29 -50.1% -54.8% 21% 10% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.8% 10% -36.7%
10% -59.1% 10% -42.7%
15% -63.1% 10% -48.3%
20% -66.7% 10% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.02 · official $61.02 (match) · 47 history records