Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2C 0x2c79…a630 world 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$52 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%47W / 56L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$67
14 days+$66
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$53
other 24% +$11
politics 10% +$3
economics 7% +$1
sports 6% −$13
finance 2% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.4% -6.5% 56% 22% -6.3%
≤30d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 7% -8.7%
≤90d 46 +0.0% -9.5% 39% 4% -9.2%
all 103 -0.1% -9.6% 46% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.2%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses47 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage470d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $161 $162 +$1 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 23 $182 +$5 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $132 +$19 +14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $185 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $188 +$4 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $339 +$37 +11%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $394 +$2 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $395 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $155 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $188 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $175 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $189 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $208 −$1 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $175 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $181 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $188 +$10 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $583 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $9 −$1 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $340 +$6 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $141 −$11 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $179 +$3 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $179 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $79 −$20 -25%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $74 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $197 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $220 −$4 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $205 +$15 +8%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $167 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $83 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $427 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $87 −$5 -5%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $95 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $6 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $342 −$13 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,100 +$6 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $2,107 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $1,008 −$9 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $533 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 21 $0 $0 -26%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $122 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $40 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $83 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $68 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $92 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $41 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $105 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $105 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $158 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $188 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $48 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $27 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $190 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $166 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $125 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $57 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $53 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $134 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $207 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $207 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.98 · official $162.50 (match) · 428 history records