Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2C 0x2c79…e0aa world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$799 (+4%) realized +$523 · open +$276
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$704per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$13,155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$379
other 9% −$1
politics 9% +$39
tech 5% +$8
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +73.0% +56.5% 100% 50% +46.4%
≤30d 3 +56.0% +41.1% 100% 67% +27.2%
≤90d 3 +56.0% +41.1% 100% 67% +27.2%
all 3 +56.0% +41.1% 100% 67% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.1% 67% +27.2%
10% +27.6% 33% +15.0%
15% +15.3% 33% +3.9%
20% +4.0% 33% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$13,155
Realized+$523
Unrealized+$276
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions26
Markets (closed)3 / 29
History coverage64d
Avg bet$704
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,662 $2,761 +$99 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $2,549 $2,699 +$150 (+6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $1,860 $1,850 −$10 (-1%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $1,364 $1,400 +$36 (+3%)
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $287 $287 −$0 (-0%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $272 $270 −$2 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $250 $262 +$12 (+5%)
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $124 $127 +$3 (+3%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? No 96¢ 94¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $72 +$101 +141%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $196 +$43 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $180 45m
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $300 46m
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 47m
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 48m
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $401 59m
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $200 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $200 1h
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026? BUY No 98¢ $200 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $200 1h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $200 1h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY No 97¢ $300 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $201 1h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $200 1h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $200 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,487 1h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $288 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,482 1h
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $23 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,860 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,976 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $219 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $75 1h
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 95¢ $124 26h
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $200 26h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,154.70 · official $13,154.39 (match) · 55 history records