Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:46:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2C 0x2c79…be50 crypto 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$190 (-12%) realized −$190 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$889
other 14% +$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -26.2% -33.2% 25% 25% -43.8%
≤30d 4 -26.2% -33.2% 25% 25% -43.8%
≤90d 4 -26.2% -33.2% 25% 25% -43.8%
all 4 -26.2% -33.2% 25% 25% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 25% -43.8%
10% -39.6% 25% -49.2%
15% -45.4% 25% -54.1%
20% -50.8% 25% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$296 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $845 −$390 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $511 −$496 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $212 +$300 +141%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $155 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $165 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $455 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $393 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $511 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $147 10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $65 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records