Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:19:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c7b…2c88 other 247 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$22
14 days−$32
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$40
sports 27% −$30
culture 8% −$5
economics 7% −$3
politics 7% −$6
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$5
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage138d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $320 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $141 −$2 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $552 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $258 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $397 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $412 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $277 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $818 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $483 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $639 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $161 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $474 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $436 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $347 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $763 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $259 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $327 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $543 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $514 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $135 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $240 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $446 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 3h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 5h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 5h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 7h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 9h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 11h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 12h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 14h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 15h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 17h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 21h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 23h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 24h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 33h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 45h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 46h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 47h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.08 · official $55.08 (match) · 1420 history records