Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

2C 0x2c7c…4377 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$19 (+6%) realized +$4 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%6W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit32%portable

Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$14

7 days+$1

14 days−$33

30 days−$33

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-12.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+22.4%	+10.8%	46%	46%	-9.0%
≤30d	17	-2.7%	-12.0%	35%	35%	-21.2%
≤90d	17	-2.7%	-12.0%	35%	35%	-21.2%
all	17	-2.7%	-12.0%	35%	35%	-21.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.0%	35%	-21.2%
10%	-20.4%	35%	-28.8%
15%	-28.1%	35%	-35.6%
20%	-35.1%	18%	-42.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +33% → late -34% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.73 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$65

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses6 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage8d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	13¢	$50	$65	+$15 (+30%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 22	$16	−$15	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 22	$27	−$27	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$20	+$11	+52%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$23	−$2	-7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$40	+$18	+46%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$11	+109%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$5	+$31	+609%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$20	+$9	+44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$20	+$10	+48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	−$4	-37%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$27	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	26¢	$20	3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	16¢	$23	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in	BUY	17¢	$15	27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$40	2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	4d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa?	SELL Yes	100¢	$28	4d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa?	SELL Yes	80¢	$8	4d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$31	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$20	6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$15	7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	93¢	$10	7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	19¢	$6	8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.11 · official $65.11 (match) · 44 history records