Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2C 0x2c7c…c2e0 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$347 (+19%) realized +$335 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$475
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +45.1% +31.3% 100% 100% +27.8%
≤30d 6 +45.1% +31.3% 100% 100% +27.8%
≤90d 6 +45.1% +31.3% 100% 100% +27.8%
all 6 +45.1% +31.3% 100% 100% +27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.3% 100% +27.8%
10% +18.7% 100% +15.5%
15% +7.3% 67% +4.4%
20% -3.3% 33% -5.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$335
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $115 $124 +$9 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $115 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $189 +$122 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $115 +$74 +64%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $307 +$74 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $232 +$75 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $166 +$66 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $114 +$52 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $75 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $118 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $118 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $310 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $189 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $189 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $115 14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY 82¢ $382 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 80¢ $307 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $232 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $166 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $114 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.38 · official $316.38 (match) · 16 history records