Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c7d…b743 sports 167 markets active 1d ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$728 (-12%) realized −$728 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%60W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$80
14 days−$192
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$169
politics 35% −$461
crypto 8% −$79
weather 7% −$71
other 3% −$36
world 2% +$22
culture 1% −$29
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -32.5% -38.9% 30% 30% -21.5%
≤30d 102 -19.0% -26.7% 38% 33% -16.4%
≤90d 103 -19.2% -26.9% 38% 33% -17.4%
all 167 -16.8% -24.7% 36% 32% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 32% -23.4%
10% -31.9% 28% -30.8%
15% -38.5% 22% -37.5%
20% -44.5% 15% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$728
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses60 / 107
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage246d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 14 $50 −$5 -9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 −$19 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 13 $25 +$3 +13%
Alexander Shevchenko vs. Vitaliy Sachko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -68%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$12 +197%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$13 +62%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $41 −$3 -7%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $22 −$1 -3%
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $23 +$10 +43%
Jiri Lehecka vs. James Duckworth: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$9 +90%
Enrico Dalla Valle vs. Carlos Sanchez Jover: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $20 +$12 +60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 +$24 +78%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -77%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$17 +83%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$18 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $18 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$13 -51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$10 -50%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 08 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $23 +$16 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 07 $22 −$1 -3%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 07 $30 −$2 -7%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 07 $20 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 95¢ $52 25h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 42¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 47h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 65¢ $20 2d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 47¢ $15 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Ben Shelton 62¢ $45 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Ben Shelton 67¢ $50 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $22 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 4d
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura SELL Hikaru Sato 74¢ $29 4d
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura BUY Hikaru Sato 64¢ $25 4d
Alexander Shevchenko vs. Vitaliy Sachko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 43¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Andrea Guerrieri 62¢ $20 5d
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Petr Brunclik 14¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 5d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Jesper de Jong 74¢ $30 5d
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Tristan Schoolkate 55¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal BUY Arthur Gea 36¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 385 history records