trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 06 | $44 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | May 28 | $4 | $0 | -4% |
| Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Mar 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Jaguars vs. Cardinals | Mar 31 | $433 | −$433 | -100% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12? | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the price of XRP be less than $1.70 on January 12? | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Ye | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on December 16? | Jan 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Jan 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook? | Jan 12 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | Jan 12 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? | Jan 12 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will no listed leader be out in 2025? | Jan 12 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | Jan 12 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on No | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 09 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Nov 09 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Alassane Ouattara win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? | Nov 09 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? | Nov 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? | Nov 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 0% | 0% | -13.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 0% | 0% | -13.0% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -16.8% | -24.7% | 64% | 0% | -89.8% |
| all | 29 | -4.7% | -13.8% | 86% | 3% | -86.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.8% | 3% | -86.2% |
| 10% | -22.0% | 0% | -87.5% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 0% | -88.7% |
| 20% | -36.5% | 0% | -89.8% |