Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2c84…2c7e other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$643 (+2%) realized +$647 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%60W / 40L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$518
7 days+$518
14 days+$518
30 days+$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2,601
other 29% +$712
sports 15% −$2,227
politics 4% −$228
economics 0% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.7% -1.6% 100% 0% -1.6%
≤30d 1 +8.7% -1.6% 100% 0% -1.6%
≤90d 10 -56.4% -60.6% 30% 20% -34.7%
all 100 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 51% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 51% -7.8%
10% -17.1% 45% -16.6%
15% -25.1% 34% -24.6%
20% -32.5% 28% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$235 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized+$647
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses60 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage242d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $168 $164 −$4 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $161 $164 +$4 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $153 $148 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5,921 +$518 +9%
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Apr 21 $471 +$113 +24%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing Apr 21 $305 +$85 +28%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Apr 21 $354 −$88 -25%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 10 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? Mar 22 $1,272 −$1,272 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 22 $145 −$145 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 22 $860 −$860 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31? Mar 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? Feb 26 $407 +$241 +59%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 25 $1,181 −$1,181 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026? Feb 25 $372 +$173 +46%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? Feb 23 $832 +$350 +42%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31? Feb 14 $721 −$721 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 14 $1,001 +$99 +10%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 12 $748 +$242 +32%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026? Feb 05 $165 +$51 +31%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? Feb 05 $151 +$31 +20%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Feb 05 $74 +$86 +116%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Feb 01 $438 −$438 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 01 $517 −$517 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Feb 01 $419 +$209 +50%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Feb 01 $4,372 +$4,394 +100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-07? Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? Jan 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Hawks vs. Spurs Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30? Jan 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Jan 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-12-01? Jan 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Everton end in a draw? Jan 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-30? Jan 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United end in a draw? Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? Jan 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jan 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jan 25 $751 −$751 -100%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31? Jan 25 $650 −$650 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31? Jan 22 $1,123 +$383 +34%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 20 $300 +$43 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15? Jan 10 $750 +$194 +26%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? Dec 27 $94 +$48 +52%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Dec 21 $1,820 +$1,074 +59%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 11 $500 +$55 +11%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Dec 10 $100 −$6 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 09 $2,959 +$286 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $158 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $166 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $173 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $500 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $151 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $38 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $147 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $74 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $59 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $273 44h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $408 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $999 33d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $2,038 37d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $553 54d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $48 54d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $379 54d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $367 55d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 55d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $188 55d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $382 55d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $66 58d
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? SELL No 97¢ $520 58d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $339 58d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 58d
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? SELL No 100¢ $64 58d
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing SELL Yes 78¢ $390 58d
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? SELL No 49¢ $265 58d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $500 63d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $881 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.50 · official $477.50 (match) · 643 history records