Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2c84…8ce8 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,169 (-17%) realized −$1,169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$581
7 days−$581
14 days−$581
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$1,452
crypto 34% −$638
other 9% +$266
finance 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -38.7% -44.5% 43% 14% -74.7%
≤30d 7 -38.7% -44.5% 43% 14% -74.7%
≤90d 50 -22.4% -29.8% 54% 40% -33.1%
all 50 -22.4% -29.8% 54% 40% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 40% -33.1%
10% -36.5% 32% -39.5%
15% -42.6% 24% -45.4%
20% -48.3% 14% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$120 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage125d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $46 +$17 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $97 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 01 $185 −$127 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 01 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 01 $82 +$29 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 01 $256 −$115 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 01 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 01 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 01 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 01 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 01 $36 +$28 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 01 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 01 $20 +$7 +34%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $170 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Apr 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $439 −$433 -99%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $233 −$230 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $703 −$697 -99%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 25 $50 −$29 -57%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $250 +$185 +74%
Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs BIG Academy - Map 2 Winner Apr 24 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs BIG Academy (BO3) - United21 Group Apr 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $226 +$73 +32%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Apr 24 $505 +$96 +19%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Misa Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Eur Apr 24 $283 +$141 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $409 +$15 +4%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Apr 22 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $300 +$47 +16%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 22 $35 −$13 -38%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $50 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Apr 21 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Apr 21 $406 +$21 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 21 $303 +$6 +2%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $247 +$53 +22%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 17 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 08 $20 +$9 +45%
DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 19.5 Apr 07 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $500 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $51 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $82 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $111 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $82 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $77 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $205 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $100 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $102 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $79 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records