Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:20:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c86…72db other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$12
other 21% +$2
sports 5% −$28
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.3% 12% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 44 -7.9% -16.6% 20% 9% -10.9%
all 56 -6.4% -15.3% 21% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 7% -10.3%
10% -23.4% 7% -18.9%
15% -30.8% 7% -26.8%
20% -37.6% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage592d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $27 $0 +1%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $13 +$5 +44%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $68 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +86%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $12 +$8 +62%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $7 +$4 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $11 +$1 +10%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +1%
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-24.5) Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 05 $84 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $96 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -3%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $38 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 23h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 24h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 44h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $6 10d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $15 12d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $12 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $27 25d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.00 · official $46.00 (match) · 237 history records