Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2C 0x2c88…e03a politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,978per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$16
politics 1% $0
other 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 7 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,978
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 30 $39 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 13 $24 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 13 $15,546 −$16 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 20d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 20d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 34d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 34d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 58d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $43 85d
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $40 85d
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $39 102d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $24 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $15,531 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15,546 102d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $24 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.55 · official $42.55 (match) · 30 history records