Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2c8e…a316 sports 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,479 (+15%) realized +$9,315 · open −$3,836
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%37W / 64L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$562est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$15,526
other 5% +$1,710
world 1% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +12.9% +2.1% 38% 38% +47.8%
≤30d 101 +8.4% -1.9% 37% 37% +47.7%
≤90d 101 +8.4% -1.9% 37% 37% +47.7%
all 101 +8.4% -1.9% 37% 37% +47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 37% +47.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 36% +33.6%
15% -19.9% 35% +20.7%
20% -27.7% 35% +8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -77% → late +92% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$644 vs −$47 · ×13.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.95 per $1 lost it wins $7.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$9,315
Unrealized−$3,836
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses37 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$562
Open positions5
Markets (closed)101 / 106
History coverage8d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $6 −$3 (-29%)
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner Schnaitter/Wallner 58¢ $3,838 $3 −$3,835 (-100%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 18 $16,024 +$14,452 +90%
ITF Lourinha: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Domingues Jun 18 $864 −$498 -58%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $5,964 −$889 -15%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $230 +$25 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $260 −$260 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 18 $166 +$240 +144%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) Jun 18 $8 +$16 +185%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $5,259 +$4,638 +88%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $492 −$492 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 16 $450 +$550 +122%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) Jun 16 $230 +$270 +117%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 16 $219 +$219 +100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin Jun 15 $440 +$560 +127%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,210 +$2,286 +189%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $315 −$315 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $43 +$285 +671%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $2 +$2 +89%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $4 +$4 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 +$1 +57%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $63 +$17 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 14 $3 +$17 +550%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 14 $5 +$16 +298%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $14 +$52 +373%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $3 +$17 +650%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$6 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $2 +$8 +474%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 14 $5 +$15 +328%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $16 +$44 +268%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +238%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +165%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $7 +$8 +124%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +62%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem SELL Paul Inchauspe 100¢ $30,476 9m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 60¢ $227 38m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 60¢ $13 38m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 60¢ $180 40m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 60¢ $1,959 40m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 60¢ $8 41m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 60¢ $57 41m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 60¢ $45 41m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 60¢ $152 41m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 55¢ $6 42m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 55¢ $785 42m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 55¢ $111 42m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 55¢ $139 42m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 55¢ $137 43m
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 50¢ $21 43m
ITF Lourinha: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Domingues SELL Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 31¢ $366 55m
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $157 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $25 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $4 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $26 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $35 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $26 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $2 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $10 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $26 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $2 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $45 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $56 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $26 1h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 51¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.17 · official $37.17 (match) · 329 history records