Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:52:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c8e…c458
crypto · 238 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$631 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$631 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$631
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses112 / 119
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)231 / 238
History coverage140d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 3 History 231 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days−$81
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-05-25? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 58¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$21 +233%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 30 $21 −$14 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 30 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 30 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $19 +$13 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $76 −$75 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$38 +74%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $69 +$31 +44%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $50 −$50 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 20 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 20 $14 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 20 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 20 $11 +$6 +51%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $1 $0 +6%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $27 +$7 +24%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $44 −$43 -98%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $50 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $15 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 19 $8 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 19 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 19 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$339
other 16% −$50
world 13% −$129
sports 9% −$114
politics 1% +$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 48m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 78¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 21¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 BUY 11¢ $10 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 24¢ $7 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 24h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 24h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $7 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.8% +6.6% 50% 42% +12.2%
≤30d 81 -18.6% -26.3% 47% 31% -31.6%
≤90d 100 -25.1% -32.2% 41% 26% -39.3%
all 231 -13.6% -21.8% 48% 34% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 34% -23.4%
10% -29.3% 24% -30.7%
15% -36.1% 17% -37.4%
20% -42.4% 10% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.55 · official $46.55 · 657 history records