Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c94…1f7d sports 269 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+1%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%129W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$187
14 days−$187
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$63
other 29% +$285
world 13% −$100
tech 1% −$92
politics 1% +$55
crypto 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -73.7% -76.2% 13% 13% -79.2%
≤30d 81 -7.1% -15.9% 46% 46% -1.0%
≤90d 84 -5.8% -14.8% 46% 46% -0.0%
all 269 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 45% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 45% -8.9%
10% -27.0% 42% -17.6%
15% -34.1% 38% -25.6%
20% -40.5% 32% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses129 / 140
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 269
History coverage238d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $12 +$14 +112%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 +$13 +82%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 May 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $52 −$52 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $10 +$10 +100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 31 $10 +$10 +108%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 31 $14 +$16 +112%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 May 31 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $151 +$69 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $49 −$49 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $6 +$4 +70%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 28 $24 +$26 +104%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $47 +$53 +114%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $41 −$14 -35%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 27 $24 +$26 +106%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $63 +$37 +59%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $87 +$63 +72%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 May 26 $13 −$12 -93%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot May 26 $69 +$11 +16%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 May 26 $10 +$10 +92%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $26 +$24 +93%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5 May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-2.5) vs Aguilar (+2.5) May 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane May 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton May 26 $59 −$59 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 May 25 $22 +$18 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $26 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $16 4h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $26 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $16 4h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $2 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $12 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 16d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Berrettini 63¢ $13 16d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $9 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 18¢ $4 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 46¢ $9 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 46¢ $0 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 28¢ $22 19d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $20 19d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 19d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 19d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 19d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Los Angeles Angels 34¢ $0 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Los Angeles Angels 34¢ $5 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Los Angeles Angels 34¢ $1 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Los Angeles Angels 34¢ $1 19d
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets BUY Miami Marlins 27¢ $11 19d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 54¢ $16 19d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $10 19d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 43¢ $22 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 704 history records