Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c99…c8d4 crypto 154 markets active 5d ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,359 (+2%) realized +$1,039 · open +$320
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate97%146W / 5L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$511per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$34
14 days+$88
30 days+$632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$1,188
other 8% +$88
tech 1% +$1
politics 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -15.5% -23.5% 83% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 39 +1.3% -8.3% 92% 10% -5.8%
≤90d 102 +1.9% -7.8% 96% 7% -8.1%
all 151 +1.8% -7.9% 97% 7% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 7% -8.4%
10% -16.7% 6% -17.2%
15% -24.8% 3% -25.2%
20% -32.1% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$993) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$34 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.62 per $1 lost it wins $6.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$2,273
Realized+$1,039
Unrealized+$320
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses146 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)151 / 154
History coverage141d
Avg bet$511
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 84¢ 97¢ $983 $1,128 +$145 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 74¢ 88¢ $927 $1,089 +$162 (+17%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 94¢ $44 $56 +$13 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $306 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $493 +$13 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $331 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,282 +$14 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $518 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $1,379 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $877 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? Jun 15 $1,091 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $986 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 12 $978 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $725 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $87 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $372 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,341 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $486 +$14 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 June 1-7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 1-7? Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 1-7? Jun 08 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $794 +$23 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $884 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $20 +$30 +151%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $359 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 03 $492 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $80 +$66 +83%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,226 +$402 +33%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10? May 08 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 07 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? May 06 $1,292 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 05 $1,193 +$12 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $298 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 3? May 04 $980 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 03 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $1,217 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 2? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 2? May 03 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 77¢ $814 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 61¢ $46 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $23 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $3 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $5 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $43 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $434 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $48 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 61¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $44 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $44 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $15 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 83¢ $517 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $6 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $197 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $493 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $4 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $90 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $99 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $74 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $440 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $768 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,379 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $493 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $123 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,273.32 · official $2,273.32 (match) · 437 history records