Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2c9c…f9b3 crypto 343 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$488 (+7%) realized +$488 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate74%253W / 90L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$264
14 days+$454
30 days+$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$454
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 +0.4% -9.1% 74% 72% -5.9%
≤30d 343 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 72% -3.9%
≤90d 343 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 72% -3.9%
all 343 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 72% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 72% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 44% -13.1%
15% -25.8% 18% -21.5%
20% -33.1% 8% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$488
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses253 / 90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)343 / 343
History coverage8d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 343 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $310 +$267 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $123 −$123 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $301 +$9 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $122 +$37 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $121 +$24 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $122 +$27 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $19 +$14 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$9 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$76 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$6 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $18 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $18 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $18 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $18 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $18 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $301 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $123 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $122 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $121 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $122 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $18 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 652 history records