Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c9d…d4de crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$218 (-4%) realized −$218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$460per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$221
14 days−$218
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$3
other 35% −$1
world 10% −$1
sports 4% −$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.0% -45.7% 20% 0% -21.7%
≤30d 11 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 11 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 0% -13.9%
all 11 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 0% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 0% -13.9%
10% -33.0% 0% -22.1%
15% -39.5% 0% -29.6%
20% -45.4% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$44 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized−$218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage13d
Avg bet$460
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $486 $486 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $453 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $116 −$115 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $482 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $550 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $432 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $452 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $440 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $512 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $486 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $482 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $453 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $17 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $59 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 23¢ $92 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 23¢ $24 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $481 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $482 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $482 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $482 7d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $530 8d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $531 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $432 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $452 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $440 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $512 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.76 · official $485.76 (match) · 35 history records