Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2c9d…e8ba crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate25%28W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$187
14 days−$187
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$1,411
other 45% −$310
sports 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-74.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -96.6% -96.9% 3% 0% -74.6%
≤30d 65 -87.6% -88.8% 11% 2% -53.3%
≤90d 92 -72.8% -75.3% 24% 1% -22.1%
all 113 -71.6% -74.3% 25% 1% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.3% 1% -18.8%
10% -76.8% 0% -26.6%
15% -79.0% 0% -33.7%
20% -81.1% 0% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$23 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses28 / 85
Open positions45
Markets (closed)113 / 57
History coverage112d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 20¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+1070%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+720%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+697%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $2 $12 +$11 (+632%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+300%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+235%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+217%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+199%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+110%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 9d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $20 15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 19d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $19 20d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 21d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 26d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 29d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 29d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 33d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 35d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $202 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $160 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $220 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $159 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.78 · official $174.79 (match) · 515 history records