Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c9e…fbfd sports 817 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,045 (-3%) realized −$2,090 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%373W / 437L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$776est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$56
14 days+$772
30 days−$10,624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$3,115
other 6% +$560
world 0% −$43
crypto 0% +$12
tech 0% +$21
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -17.1% -25.0% 46% 35% -10.1%
≤30d 480 -32.5% -38.9% 34% 32% -31.2%
≤90d 770 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 42% -14.4%
all 810 -4.9% -14.0% 46% 44% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 44% -13.3%
10% -22.2% 41% -21.6%
15% -29.7% 36% -29.2%
20% -36.6% 31% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +32% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$65 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized−$2,090
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses373 / 437
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$776
Open positions7
Markets (closed)810 / 817
History coverage152d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 810 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 68¢ 80¢ $155 $181 +$26 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Gentle Mates 65¢ 78¢ $130 $156 +$26 (+20%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Vici Gaming 77¢ 100¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 45¢ 36¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-42%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 215 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 18 $203 +$217 +107%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $201 +$62 +31%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $210 −$163 -78%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $193 +$192 +100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $7 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $86 −$84 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $86 −$84 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 16 $102 +$148 +146%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $205 −$202 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $113 −$111 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $26 +$11 +41%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $201 +$41 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $193 +$270 +140%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $203 +$197 +97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $8 −$3 -36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$53 +52%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $137 −$135 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $95 −$94 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $65 −$64 -98%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $104 −$102 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $141 −$140 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $60 +$49 +83%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $40 +$5 +13%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $110 −$108 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $63 −$62 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $193 −$190 -99%
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $48 +$176 +365%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$8 +371%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $114 +$72 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $51 32m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 77¢ $101 34m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 65¢ $131 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 76¢ $201 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 68¢ $156 4h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 48¢ $203 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 60¢ $15 22h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Team Nemesis 20¢ $17 22h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 37¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 31¢ $42 25h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 31¢ $146 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $102 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $91 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $30 40h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 41¢ $49 40h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 30¢ $10 41h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 30¢ $76 41h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 14¢ $86 41h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $68 42h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 44h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $113 45h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) BUY XLG Gaming 55¢ $15 45h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 29¢ $28 46h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 22¢ $34 46h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 5¢ $3 46h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 35¢ $25 47h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 17¢ $9 47h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.36 · official $512.80 (match) · 1673 history records