Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ca3…b826 sports 51 markets active 15h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$622 (-3%) realized −$622 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%24W / 27L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$592
7 days−$1,823
14 days−$856
30 days−$856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$860
other 1% +$10
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -21.8% -29.3% 42% 39% -22.2%
≤30d 51 -24.8% -31.9% 47% 39% -13.8%
≤90d 51 -24.8% -31.9% 47% 39% -13.8%
all 51 -24.8% -31.9% 47% 39% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 39% -13.8%
10% -38.4% 33% -22.1%
15% -44.4% 33% -29.6%
20% -49.8% 16% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$192 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$622
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage12d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $299 −$294 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $690 −$313 -45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $29 +$10 +36%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$7 +114%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,531 −$3,531 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $106 −$104 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,513 +$637 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2,243 +$1,061 +47%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 +$102 +102%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$54 +53%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,156 +$208 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $27 −$27 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $828 +$518 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $250 +$294 +118%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $223 +$239 +107%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $91 −$4 -5%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $69 −$20 -29%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $61 +$43 +71%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $2 +$1 +47%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $955 +$403 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $865 +$92 +11%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $662 +$240 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $581 +$81 +14%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $462 +$93 +20%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $29 −$18 -64%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $374 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $340 +$27 +8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $7 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $248 +$93 +38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $51 −$43 -86%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $339 +$13 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 1¢ $5 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 77¢ $299 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 20¢ $320 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $230 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $1 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $6 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $4 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $3 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $1 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $2 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $9 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $33 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $7 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $21 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $1 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $12 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $7 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $10 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $3 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 222 history records