Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ca6…b9d1 weather 1051 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$179 (+0%) realized +$173 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1011W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day89.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$65
14 days−$10
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$41
other 0% +$20
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 -1.0% -10.5% 98% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 772 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 1028 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.7%
all 1028 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$37 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1,034
Realized+$173
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1011 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1028 / 1051
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day89.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1028 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 96¢ 99¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? No 96¢ 97¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? No 98¢ 100¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 97¢ 93¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 2? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 16 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $22 13m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $24 13m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $45 14m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $45 23m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $22 42m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $46 55m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,034.24 · official $1,034.24 (match) · 3500 history records