Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2ca9…fe9c weather 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$142 (-1%) realized −$145 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day95.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 80% +$90
weather 20% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+80.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +451.5% +399.0% 57% 43% -1.6%
≤30d 27 +113.3% +93.0% 33% 11% -7.4%
≤90d 51 +99.6% +80.6% 43% 16% -7.1%
all 51 +99.6% +80.6% 43% 16% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +80.6% 16% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here +63.3% 12% -16.0%
15% +47.5% 8% -24.1%
20% +33.1% 8% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +79% → late +120% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
38.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Open positions7
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$347
Trades / day95.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $124 $124 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $74 $78 +$4 (+5%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 85¢ 87¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 91¢ 89¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 5? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 17? Jun 24 $0 +$8 +30351%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 17? Jun 24 $0 −$1 -711%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 17? Jun 24 $2 +$4 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 60°F or higher on May 5? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 18? Jun 24 $1 +$16 +1258%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $953 +$87 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $68 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $161 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $132 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $77 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $102 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 09 $82 −$10 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $88 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $61 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $32 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $22 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $85 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $107 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $0 $0 -57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 24? May 24 $179 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $240 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 24? May 24 $220 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24? May 24 $126 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 25? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? May 24 $17 −$6 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 25? May 24 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 25? May 24 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 24 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 24 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25? May 24 $125 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $89 −$6 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 24? May 23 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23? May 23 $168 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? May 23 $79 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $152 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 23? May 23 $217 +$25 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 23? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? May 22 $66 +$12 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22? May 22 $85 +$19 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22? May 22 $63 +$18 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $103 44m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $20 53m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $10 53m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 90¢ $63 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 91¢ $64 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $20 5h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $23 13h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $23 14h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $32 15h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $23 16h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 18h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 18h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 18h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $31 18h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 18h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $30 18h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $103 19h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 21h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 25h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 25h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $9 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $17 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 26h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 26h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.42 · official $330.91 (match) · 3500 history records