Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2ca9…e06b
politics · 79 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$33 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$85
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses26 / 51
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage318d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 2 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $87 $81 −$7 (-8%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $83 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $87 +$2 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $74 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $89 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $87 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $147 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $20 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $63 +$27 +43%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $1 $0 -24%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $45 +$3 +7%
Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $12 +$1 +10%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 24 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $3 $0 -3%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 24 $4 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 07 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $7 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 05 $15 $0 +3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Aug 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% −$5
other 25% +$28
politics 13% +$4
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $74 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $13 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $37 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $18 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $15 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $17 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $57 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $24 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $6 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $63 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $63 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $39 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $2 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $41 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $56 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $27 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $42 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $92 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $38 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $42 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $87 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.3%
all 77 +0.8% -8.8% 34% 3% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -7.8%
10% -17.6% 3% -16.6%
15% -25.5% 1% -24.7%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.58 · official $84.58 (match) · 249 history records