Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2cab…e9c4 sports 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$25 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%54W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$267
14 days+$113
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$6
other 37% +$227
world 5% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +37.8% +24.6% 83% 75% +10.3%
≤30d 33 +10.5% -0.0% 73% 61% -3.9%
≤90d 35 +11.6% +1.0% 74% 63% -2.7%
all 96 -6.1% -15.0% 56% 50% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 50% -4.6%
10% -23.2% 47% -13.7%
15% -30.6% 31% -22.0%
20% -37.4% 25% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$44 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses54 / 42
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions6
Markets (closed)96 / 113
History coverage276d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Ecuador 81¢ 82¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 73¢ 73¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) Türkiye 86¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Over 83¢ 81¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Australia 86¢ 86¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $47 +$25 +53%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 AND Jun 23 $277 +$23 +8%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Wi Jun 23 $27 +$13 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $42 +$19 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $124 +$74 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $112 +$62 +55%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $49 +$12 +24%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $152 −$152 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $49 +$92 +190%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$210 +103%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $25 +$37 +145%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $151 +$39 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $80 +$32 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$15 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $70 +$42 +60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $56 +$25 +46%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $70 +$18 +26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $181 +$19 +11%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $160 +$15 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $150 +$13 +8%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5 May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $253 +$178 +70%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 May 28 $245 +$26 +11%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 0.5 May 26 $59 −$10 -17%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 May 05 $98 +$28 +29%
Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: O/U 1.5 May 05 $100 +$32 +32%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 28 $74 +$50 +68%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 1.5 Feb 28 $133 +$42 +32%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $50 −$26 -52%
Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $50 +$13 +27%
Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 Feb 26 $50 +$19 +39%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Juventus FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 Feb 21 $50 +$18 +35%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Dec 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $23 +$43 +186%
Will CD Nacional vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Nov 29 $16 −$14 -87%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $130 +$43 +33%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23? Nov 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 86¢ $48 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 86¢ $50 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $50 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $50 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 81¢ $70 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $47 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 30¢ $26 25h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Repub BUY 68¢ $101 25h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will E BUY 56¢ $171 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croati BUY 65¢ $152 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $77 2d
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 AND SELL 81¢ $300 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Wi SELL 58¢ $40 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 3d
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 AND BUY 74¢ $277 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Wi BUY 39¢ $27 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $124 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 58¢ $86 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Wi BUY 31¢ $26 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $49 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 64¢ $112 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $121 4d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) AND Will Japan BUY 49¢ $61 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: German BUY 65¢ $303 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 SELL 30¢ $26 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 34¢ $49 6d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Mo BUY 53¢ $152 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $15 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 48¢ $203 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.89 · official $316.89 (match) · 221 history records