Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2C 0x2cab…54cb other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$69 (+51%) realized +$71 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +157% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +124% what you keep after slip

Net edge+124%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+132.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+157.1%	+132.6%	100%	100%	+108.8%
≤30d	4	+157.1%	+132.6%	100%	100%	+108.8%
≤90d	4	+157.1%	+132.6%	100%	100%	+108.8%
all	4	+157.1%	+132.6%	100%	100%	+108.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+132.6%	100%	+108.8%
10%	+110.4%	100%	+88.8%
15%	+90.0%	75%	+70.6%
20%	+71.4%	75%	+53.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 70% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +131% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +157% · $-wt +131% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$79

Realized+$71

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)4 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$36	$36	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$17	+$5	+32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$18	+$10	+56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$7	+$5	+69%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	+$49	+471%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$37	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$15	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$17	21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$18	21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$7	44h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	47h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.37 · official $79.37 (match) · 14 history records