Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2cad…910e other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$12 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$2
politics 16% +$2
crypto 15% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.2% -26.9% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤30d 6 -19.2% -26.9% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -19.2% -26.9% 50% 50% -9.8%
all 7 -15.7% -23.7% 57% 43% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 43% -8.9%
10% -31.0% 43% -17.6%
15% -37.7% 29% -25.6%
20% -43.8% 14% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage173d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
USD1 depeg by December 31? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $22 −$21 -95%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11 −$7 -66%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $38 +$31 +82%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$9 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $43 +$18 +42%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 09 $41 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $39 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 32h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $21 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $32 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $31 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 7d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the SELL Yes 100¢ $43 139d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the BUY Yes 95¢ $41 153d
USD1 depeg by December 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.36 · official $36.36 (match) · 18 history records