Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:48:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2caf…36f7
crypto · 145 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$71 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$71 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses49 / 94
Open positions2
Markets (closed)143 / 145
History coverage200d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 143 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 16 $25 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 16 $25 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 16 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 16 $59 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 16 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 16 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 19 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 12 $10 +$9 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 11 $15 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 11 $10 +$8 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 10 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 10 $20 +$21 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 10 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 10 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 10 $39 +$35 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 10 $29 +$27 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 10 $29 +$26 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 10 $15 −$10 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 09 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 03 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 08 $15 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 07 $45 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 07 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Dec 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Dec 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$71
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 29h
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -18.0% -25.8% 0% 0% -25.8%
≤30d 1 -18.0% -25.8% 0% 0% -25.8%
≤90d 19 -12.1% -20.4% 37% 11% -23.6%
all 143 -0.0% -9.5% 34% 31% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 31% -6.8%
10% -18.2% 30% -15.7%
15% -26.1% 30% -23.9%
20% -33.3% 29% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.51 · official $29.51 (match) · 594 history records