Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2caf…f2ca sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$119 (+29%) realized +$235 · open −$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$192
crypto 28% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +225.9% +194.9% 100% 100% +147.9%
≤30d 5 +45.3% +31.5% 40% 40% +61.2%
≤90d 5 +45.3% +31.5% 40% 40% +61.2%
all 5 +45.3% +31.5% 40% 40% +61.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.5% 40% +61.2%
10% +18.9% 40% +45.7%
15% +7.4% 40% +31.7%
20% -3.1% 20% +18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$27 · ×5.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.76 per $1 lost it wins $3.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$235
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage11d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 2¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $63 +$257 +407%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $114 +$51 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $40 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $43 −$42 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 2¢ $7 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 2¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 9¢ $51 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 11¢ $51 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $320 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 19¢ $63 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 85¢ $4 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $160 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $114 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? SELL No 19¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY No 23¢ $40 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $43 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.93 (match) · 13 history records