Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2cb3…78e9 sports 236 markets active 6d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,689 (+6%) realized +$2,689 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%117W / 119L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$219est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$40
14 days−$733
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$272
other 41% +$2,532
world 1% +$169
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.8% -57.3% 0% 0% -56.1%
≤30d 13 -19.6% -27.3% 31% 23% -16.4%
≤90d 169 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 40% +4.1%
all 236 +4.6% -5.3% 50% 42% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 42% -4.7%
10% -14.4% 36% -13.8%
15% -22.7% 30% -22.2%
20% -30.2% 24% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$97 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,689
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses117 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage92d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $38 −$38 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $40 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 02 $106 −$103 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $113 −$7 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $61 −$4 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $40 −$2 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $679 −$673 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $740 +$98 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $47 −$28 -58%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,112 +$54 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $546 +$169 +31%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $299 +$247 +83%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $38 −$35 -93%
Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5 May 02 $30 −$1 -5%
Will US Boulogne Côte d'Opale win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $64 +$2 +3%
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5) May 02 $30 +$63 +207%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $80 −$80 -100%
FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) Apr 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $45 +$18 +40%
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $66 +$36 +54%
Spread: Rockets (-9.5) Apr 24 $31 $0 -2%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $81 +$29 +36%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $82 +$37 +45%
Shymkent: Andrej Nedic vs Sergey Fomin Apr 24 $22 $0 +2%
CA Paranaense vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $50 +$20 +40%
Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $50 +$38 +76%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $50 +$20 +40%
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $50 +$15 +31%
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) Apr 24 $54 +$25 +46%
Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5) Apr 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $124 −$124 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $55 +$46 +84%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 22 $50 +$103 +206%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $50 −$25 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +44%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $577 +$110 +19%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 22 $348 +$222 +64%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Apr 22 $301 +$93 +31%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $50 −$2 -3%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $133 +$38 +29%
São Paulo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $50 −$29 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 50¢ $38 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $38 5d
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes $106 13d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 38¢ $106 13d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 39¢ $113 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $38 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $38 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $38 13d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 74¢ $679 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 95¢ $839 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 83¢ $740 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes $1 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 77¢ $747 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 40¢ $398 16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 41¢ $419 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 68¢ $714 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $715 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $546 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $299 21d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 42d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes $3 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 616 history records