Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cb3…6acb sports 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$3
politics 23% −$2
other 21% −$2
crypto 8% −$1
culture 7% −$1
economics 5% +$1
world 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 123 -0.9% -10.4% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 104
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage158d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $244 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 12 $60 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $44 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 12 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $43 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $50 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $50 12d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $47 27d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $47 27d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $56 41d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 41d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 127d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 127d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 95¢ $50 127d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 95¢ $50 127d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 98¢ $57 127d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 98¢ $57 127d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $52 128d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $52 128d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $54 128d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $54 128d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $53 128d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $54 128d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $52 128d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $52 128d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 98¢ $56 128d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 98¢ $56 128d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $54 128d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $54 128d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $54 128d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $54 128d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $52 128d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $52 128d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $54 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.22 · official $43.22 (match) · 518 history records