Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cb4…40d5 crypto 666 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (146 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-2%) realized −$48 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%328W / 337L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day145.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$30
other 3% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (146 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 665 -7.0% -15.8% 49% 46% -11.4%
≤30d 665 -7.0% -15.8% 49% 46% -11.4%
≤90d 665 -7.0% -15.8% 49% 46% -11.4%
all 665 -7.0% -15.8% 49% 46% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 46% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 43% -19.9%
15% -31.3% 42% -27.6%
20% -38.0% 41% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses328 / 337
Open positions1
Markets (closed)665 / 666
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day145.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10PM ET Down 50¢ 6¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$52 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $41 +$56 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +233%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +233%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +233%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +233%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +203%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$3 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $22 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.71 · official $0.58 (match) · 1525 history records