Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2cb5…6e63 sports 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$807 (-9%) realized −$881 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%65W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$127
14 days−$94
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$656
other 1% −$30
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.1% -14.1% 67% 56% -17.3%
≤30d 38 +7.2% -3.0% 76% 68% -10.0%
≤90d 71 -3.5% -12.7% 66% 62% -14.5%
all 107 -8.1% -16.8% 61% 56% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 56% -17.8%
10% -24.8% 46% -25.7%
15% -32.0% 34% -32.8%
20% -38.7% 21% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$66 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$881
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses65 / 42
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage101d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 10¢ 44¢ $22 $96 +$74 (+335%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $264 +$9 +4%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $106 +$43 +40%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $94 +$22 +23%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $56 +$35 +62%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $142 −$85 -60%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $181 +$17 +10%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $88 −$48 -54%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $109 −$109 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $101 +$68 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $79 +$27 +34%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $29 +$11 +39%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $17 +$6 +38%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $26 +$4 +14%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $27 +$20 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $20 +$13 +64%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $21 +$15 +70%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $21 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $51 +$19 +38%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $41 +$10 +26%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $29 +$12 +41%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 31 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $22 +$5 +23%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $57 −$35 -62%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $37 +$20 +55%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $32 +$5 +17%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $28 +$4 +14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $22 +$6 +28%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $86 +$23 +27%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $52 +$34 +64%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) May 25 $40 +$12 +29%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $35 +$5 +16%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $25 +$10 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $24 +$12 +52%
Pistons vs. Magic May 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Apr 20 $43 +$9 +21%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $26 +$17 +65%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5 Apr 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 229.5 Apr 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5 Apr 03 $12 +$6 +50%
Spread: Raptors (-11.5) Apr 02 $13 +$4 +31%
Spread: Bulls (-5.5) Apr 02 $13 +$6 +44%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $9 +$5 +57%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $9 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 9¢ $10 27m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 11¢ $12 28m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 84¢ $153 41m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 73¢ $134 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Boston Red Sox 39¢ $134 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 47¢ $167 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 80¢ $168 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 70¢ $149 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 91¢ $149 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 64¢ $106 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ $106 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 66¢ $116 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 92¢ $116 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 74¢ $94 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 86¢ $91 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $56 4h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 22¢ $57 24h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $142 26h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 94¢ $144 26h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 64¢ $48 27h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 57¢ $46 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 23¢ $41 27h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 48¢ $53 27h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 76¢ $87 28h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $28 30h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $60 30h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 100¢ $169 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 59¢ $101 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $107 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 73¢ $79 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.63 · official $95.63 (match) · 280 history records