trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 38% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 36% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 36% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 23 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 39% | 0% | -13.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.0% | 0% | -13.5% |
| 10% | -19.5% | 0% | -21.8% |
| 15% | -27.3% | 0% | -29.4% |
| 20% | -34.4% | 0% | -36.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 64¢ | 62¢ | $33 | $32 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $39 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $4 | $0 | -8% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 15 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $38 | −$1 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $125 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 05 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 19 | $173 | −$28 | -16% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 27 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 05 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? | Mar 28 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 19 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 11 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo | Mar 04 | $13 | −$1 | -4% |