Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2cb7…93c7 crypto 529 markets active 1h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,292 (+9%) realized +$1,281 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%234W / 281L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$881now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$8
14 days+$16
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$1,059
world 12% −$198
finance 10% +$256
other 7% −$13
politics 2% +$53
sports 1% +$49
tech 0% −$12
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -18.4% -26.1% 50% 25% -12.8%
≤30d 25 -20.9% -28.5% 36% 28% -3.2%
≤90d 105 -10.2% -18.7% 49% 42% -3.3%
all 515 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 40% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 40% -1.0%
10% -19.9% 35% -10.5%
15% -27.6% 29% -19.1%
20% -34.7% 25% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$14 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$881
Realized+$1,281
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses234 / 281
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)515 / 529
History coverage338d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 49¢ $225 $240 +$15 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 68¢ 100¢ $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 45¢ 100¢ $50 $111 +$61 (+122%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 54¢ 49¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $45 $37 −$8 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 47¢ 30¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-35%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 54¢ 5¢ $113 $11 −$101 (-90%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $17 +$31 +178%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 −$45 -99%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $23 +$15 +63%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +213%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +474%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $201 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $318 −$110 -34%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $20 +$22 +108%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? May 11 $51 +$13 +25%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 09 $7 −$7 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $20 +$41 +203%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 01 $38 +$15 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $40 +$25 +62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $100 +$21 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 01 $150 +$66 +44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 20 $14 −$13 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 19 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 19 $9 −$8 -93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 19 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 18 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 18 $10 +$11 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 53¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 26¢ $15 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 35¢ $10 8h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 60¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $6 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 9d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 9d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $880.73 · official $880.73 (match) · 1499 history records