Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cb7…9abc other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$745 (-13%) realized −$740 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days−$265
14 days−$725
30 days−$725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$350
sports 39% −$406
crypto 3% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -17.3% -25.2% 48% 33% -12.0%
≤30d 31 -24.9% -32.1% 42% 29% -20.0%
≤90d 31 -24.9% -32.1% 42% 29% -20.0%
all 31 -24.9% -32.1% 42% 29% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 29% -20.0%
10% -38.6% 16% -27.6%
15% -44.5% 13% -34.6%
20% -50.0% 13% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$82 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$740
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage8d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $372 +$37 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $360 +$10 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $240 +$125 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $194 −$135 -70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $180 +$10 +6%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $63 +$144 +226%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $624 −$37 -6%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $291 −$290 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 −$5 -9%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $297 +$47 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $114 +$7 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $423 +$68 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$75 -68%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$59 -58%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $254 −$124 -49%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $393 +$269 +68%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $94 +$4 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $375 −$184 -49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $141 −$7 -5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$6 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $162 +$26 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $170 −$9 -6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $154 −$150 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain to win the second half? SELL Yes 95¢ $409 16m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 42m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 82¢ $5 42m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $4 1h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 86¢ $372 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $371 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $360 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $240 39h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $58 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $57 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $194 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $191 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 96¢ $130 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $63 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 4d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 91¢ $291 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 78¢ $96 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 77¢ $347 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records