Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2C 0x2cb7…bb7e sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$114 (+29%) realized +$153 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$10
other 45% +$90
crypto 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.8% -15.6% 56% 44% +27.2%
≤30d 9 -6.8% -15.6% 56% 44% +27.2%
≤90d 9 -6.8% -15.6% 56% 44% +27.2%
all 9 -6.8% -15.6% 56% 44% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 44% +27.2%
10% -23.7% 44% +15.0%
15% -31.1% 44% +3.9%
20% -37.8% 33% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$8 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$153
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 28¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-47%)
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $16 −$6 -40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$6 -62%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $112 +$49 +43%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 +$8 +74%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$41 +67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 +$45 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $19 1h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $10 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $16 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $17 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026- BUY 27¢ $56 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $112 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $95 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.08 · official $10.08 (match) · 20 history records