Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2cb8…7c99
weather · 56 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$444 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$367 · open +$76
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$224
Realized+$367
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses40 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage46d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$352
14 days+$500
30 days+$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 59¢ 89¢ $148 $224 +$76 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $78 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $39 +$16 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $260 +$104 +40%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $129 +$98 +76%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $367 +$64 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $226 +$112 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $68 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $71 +$16 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 03 $120 +$91 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 3? Jun 03 $167 +$13 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 02 $80 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 02 $64 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $125 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 01 $118 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 31? May 31 $99 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 31? May 31 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? May 29 $98 +$21 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 28? May 28 $93 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 21? May 21 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma May 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 20? May 21 $35 −$20 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 20? May 20 $38 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 20? May 20 $28 +$24 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 17? May 18 $41 +$48 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 16? May 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 17 $23 +$19 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17? May 17 $93 −$74 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 17? May 17 $65 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 16? May 16 $77 +$14 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15? May 15 $127 +$33 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 15? May 15 $25 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 14 $34 +$10 +31%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 14? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 14? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 14? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 13 $51 +$36 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 13? May 13 $57 +$19 +33%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 13 $82 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 12 $3 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 30? May 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 12? May 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 12? May 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 10 $10 +$3 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on May 7? May 07 $3 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$425
crypto 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $88 52m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 66¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $55 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $54 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $203 24h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $97 24h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 91¢ $137 25h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 91¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 91¢ $34 25h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 91¢ $45 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.2% +7.8% 89% 89% +14.6%
≤30d 35 +11.4% +0.8% 86% 54% +3.9%
≤90d 55 -6.7% -15.6% 73% 45% -0.0%
all 55 -6.7% -15.6% 73% 45% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 45% -0.0%
10% -23.7% 25% -9.6%
15% -31.1% 16% -18.3%
20% -37.8% 11% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.35 · official $224.35 (match) · 267 history records