Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cb8…49c4 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$2
other 32% +$1
politics 8% $0
tech 8% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 3% +$1
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 11 -3.5% -12.7% 27% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 11 -3.5% -12.7% 27% 0% -8.9%
all 31 -0.8% -10.2% 39% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage446d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $38 +$3 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -47%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $76 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +9%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on May May 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $42 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 16 $26 $0 -1%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Apr 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Mason Graham? Apr 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $24 $0 -1%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 31 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 71¢ $40 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $41 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $46 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $38 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $16 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $23 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $38 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $39 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $39 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $43 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $43 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $38 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records