Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cbb…3b60 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-0%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate25%29W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,150per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$27
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$181
politics 38% −$64
sports 15% +$148
world 2% −$4
crypto 2% −$5
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% +$3
culture 0% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 -11.5% -19.9% 9% 3% -9.9%
all 118 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 9% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 8% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 8% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,454) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$10 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$1,321
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses29 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,150
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $775 $776 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $546 $545 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,290 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,005 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,438 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,453 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5,275 −$6 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $6,334 −$7 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,657 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,534 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,807 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $402 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 02 $567 +$1 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $534 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $668 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,355 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,953 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 08 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $4,062 −$6 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $3,045 −$4 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $689 +$3 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,990 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,439 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? Apr 21 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $5,161 −$5 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,207 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $2,596 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,269 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,328 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $1,320 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $546 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $676 5h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $677 6h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $647 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $648 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $540 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $541 30h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $775 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,438 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,438 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $829 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $831 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,451 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,453 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,448 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,449 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,343 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,269 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,270 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,257 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,259 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,123 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,125 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,070 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,072 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,342 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,344 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,320.97 · official $1,320.97 (match) · 386 history records