Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cbd…ae41 politics 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$2
world 21% −$1
other 19% +$1
crypto 11% $0
economics 6% +$1
culture 3% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 38 +0.1% -9.4% 21% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage302d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $39 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $37 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $34 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $1 $0 -12%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $62 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 19 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Sep 02 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $2 +$1 +30%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 28 $72 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 27 $37 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $33 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $29 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $4 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $23 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $14 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $37 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 32h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $13 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $27 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $38 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $37 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $18 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $3 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $15 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records