Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2cbe…23b1 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$94 (+27%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate83%15W / 3L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$62
sports 44% +$7
crypto 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +27.8% +15.6% 83% 78% +10.4%
≤30d 18 +27.8% +15.6% 83% 78% +10.4%
≤90d 18 +27.8% +15.6% 83% 78% +10.4%
all 18 +27.8% +15.6% 83% 78% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 78% +10.4%
10% +4.6% 67% -0.2%
15% -5.5% 61% -9.8%
20% -14.8% 39% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $40 +$9 +22%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$10 +50%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$20 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 $0 +1%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 +$8 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $20 46m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $20 57m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 1h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 2h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $20 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $11 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $6 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 13h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $12 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $10 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records