Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2C 0x2cc0…38aa sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$552 (+32%) realized +$552 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$535
world 17% +$10
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 50% +20.5%
all 6 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 50% +20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 50% +20.5%
10% -9.2% 50% +9.0%
15% -18.0% 50% -1.6%
20% -26.0% 50% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$191 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage67d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $388 +$202 +52%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $245 +$145 +60%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $260 −$255 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 05 $250 +$10 +4%
Sharks vs. Jets Apr 23 $380 +$570 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $129 19d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $388 40d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $245 44d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 29¢ $260 47d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 96¢ $250 55d
Sharks vs. Jets BUY Sharks 40¢ $380 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.75 · official $61.75 (match) · 12 history records