Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cc1…3957 crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$120 (+12%) realized +$152 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%9W / 30L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day93.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$59
other 5% +$56
sports 3% −$6
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -19.9% -27.6% 23% 23% +9.9%
≤30d 39 -19.9% -27.6% 23% 23% +9.9%
≤90d 39 -19.9% -27.6% 23% 23% +9.9%
all 39 -19.9% -27.6% 23% 23% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 23% +9.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 23% -0.6%
15% -40.8% 21% -10.2%
20% -46.6% 21% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$13 · ×4.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses9 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 32¢ 28¢ $150 $133 −$17 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Down 31¢ 24¢ $75 $60 −$15 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$99 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$90 +873%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $88 +$135 +152%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$263 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$9 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -92%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$14 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +83%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$6 -25%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$7 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $25 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $223 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $36 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 0¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $368 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.64 · official $312.82 · 94 history records