Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2cc4…1dfe crypto 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$137 (+0%) realized +$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate95%174W / 9L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$15
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$92
other 0% +$2
sports 0% +$25
world 0% +$1
tech 0% +$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 36 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 114 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 183 +1.6% -8.1% 95% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 9% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 7% -18.0%
15% -24.9% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$553) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.31 per $1 lost it wins $7.31
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses174 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)183 / 185
History coverage286d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $591 $591 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 95¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $590 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? Jun 16 $589 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $588 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $585 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $585 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 13? Jun 13 $585 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? Jun 12 $583 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $582 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $582 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $581 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $580 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $580 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? Jun 06 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $577 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $577 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $576 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $575 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $573 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $573 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 31? Jun 01 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 30? May 31 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 29? May 29 $571 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 27? May 27 $571 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 26? May 27 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 26? May 26 $570 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? May 25 $569 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? May 24 $569 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 23? May 24 $568 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23? May 23 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 22 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $565 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $460 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? May 19 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on May 18? May 18 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18? May 18 $263 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 18 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 17 $562 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 16? May 17 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $561 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 15? May 16 $559 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? May 15 $557 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 14? May 14 $556 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 13? May 14 $554 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 13? May 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 13? May 13 $440 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? May 12 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 11? May 11 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 10? May 10 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 9? May 09 $551 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $591 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $590 33h
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $589 40h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $588 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $585 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $585 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $585 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $583 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $582 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $582 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $581 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $580 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $580 11d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $579 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $577 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $577 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $576 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $576 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $575 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $573 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $573 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $572 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $572 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $571 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $571 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $570 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $570 23d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $569 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $569 24d
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $568 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.11 · official $601.11 (match) · 466 history records