Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cc5…4a43 sports 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$203 (-16%) realized −$215 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%45W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$60
other 34% −$115
crypto 21% −$60
world 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -43.8% -49.2% 20% 20% -25.0%
≤30d 51 -57.0% -61.1% 20% 20% -61.7%
≤90d 137 -34.0% -40.3% 26% 26% -35.1%
all 177 -32.8% -39.2% 25% 25% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 25% -25.7%
10% -45.0% 25% -32.8%
15% -50.4% 24% -39.3%
20% -55.2% 24% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$215
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses45 / 132
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)177 / 180
History coverage112d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 5.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Exact Score: SV Werder Bremen 2 - 3 BV Borussia 09 Dortmund? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 4 - 1 Burnley FC? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Burnley FC? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 6 - 0 Burnley FC? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Real Oviedo vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Over 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 2 Everton FC? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$10 +246%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +116%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 29 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -58%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 27 $12 −$9 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 27 $4 +$4 +88%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $3 +$3 +112%
Crystal Palace FC leading at halftime? May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 3 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 22 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 22 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 22 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 5.5 May 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 0 - 3 Manchester City FC? May 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Burnley FC? May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 4 - 1 Burnley FC? May 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 6 - 0 Burnley FC? May 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: FC St. Pauli 1910 2 - 3 VfL Wolfsburg? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5 May 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $5 +$5 +92%
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 5.5 May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5) May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: SV Werder Bremen 2 - 3 BV Borussia 09 Dortmund? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $14 2h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $4 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 2¢ $3 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $4 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $4 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $5 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 16d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 8¢ $2 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.68 · official $8.92 · 262 history records