Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cc9…ff02 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$2
politics 32% $0
other 18% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 5% −$2
economics 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 13 +1.6% -8.1% 38% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +1.6% -8.1% 38% 8% -9.1%
all 39 -3.5% -12.7% 28% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 5% -9.6%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage320d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $17 +$2 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $47 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 19 $2 $0 +13%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 13 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $98 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Au Aug 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 11 $52 $0 +1%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 05 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $41 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $26 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $23 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.78 · official $3.38 (match) · 124 history records