Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
2C 0x2cce…2ff1 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$2,128 (+23%) realized +$2,041 · open +$87
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%38W / 39L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days+$89
14 days−$606
30 days+$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$2,182
other 17% +$183
crypto 3% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.5% -14.5% 33% 33% +5.5%
≤30d 31 +11.3% +0.7% 35% 35% -1.6%
≤90d 77 +24.4% +12.6% 49% 45% +12.9%
all 77 +24.4% +12.6% 49% 45% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 45% +12.9%
10% +1.8% 44% +2.1%
15% -8.0% 44% -7.8%
20% -17.0% 44% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$67 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$2,041
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses38 / 39
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 81
History coverage54d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B Joblife 19¢ 100¢ $25 $132 +$107 (+426%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $89 $69 −$20 (-22%)
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C FOKUS 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Jun 29 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $122 +$109 +90%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
João Félix: 1+ assists Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Jun 26 $100 +$182 +182%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to S Jun 26 $29 +$81 +279%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 +$431 +856%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 21 $127 −$127 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $341 −$341 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 21 $148 −$148 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 21 $254 −$254 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $162 −$59 -36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $259 +$295 +114%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $234 +$210 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $66 +$50 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $333 +$364 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $153 +$196 +129%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 30 $113 −$113 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $71 +$61 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $26 +$71 +276%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 30 $51 +$60 +119%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $101 +$74 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $26 −$14 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 29 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $128 +$1 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $607 +$372 +61%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 27 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $102 +$103 +101%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 27 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $113 +$114 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $61 +$50 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $113 +$101 +90%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $51 +$110 +215%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 24 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $15 −$14 -88%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $15 −$1 -8%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $1,290 +$55 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B BUY Joblife 19¢ $26 1h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 55¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $90 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $122 23h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 43h
João Félix: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $26 43h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $26 43h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $51 43h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $75 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to S BUY 26¢ $29 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both BUY 35¢ $100 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 46¢ $102 4d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $175 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $341 15d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 40¢ $103 15d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $162 16d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $33 16d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $554 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $259 16d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $234 19d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $66 19d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 20d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $331 20d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $150 23d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $148 26d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 32¢ $51 26d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $50 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $153 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.65 · official $245.42 · 172 history records