Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2cce…6e85 crypto 347 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$85,632 (-137%) realized −$86,291 · open +$659
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%146W / 603L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day118.5pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121,156
7 days−$119,389
14 days−$119,389
30 days−$125,639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$4,505
sports 9% +$835
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 476 -85.7% -87.0% 5% 5% -92.5%
≤30d 749 -54.5% -58.8% 19% 19% -72.4%
≤90d 749 -54.5% -58.8% 19% 19% -72.4%
all 749 -54.5% -58.8% 19% 19% -72.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.8% 19% -72.4%
10% ← realistic here -62.8% 19% -75.0%
15% -66.4% 17% -77.5%
20% -69.7% 16% -79.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$249 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1,494
Realized−$86,291
Unrealized+$659
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses146 / 603
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions1
Markets (closed)749 / 347
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$180
Trades / day118.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 749 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 6¢ 12¢ $834 $1,494 +$659 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 14? Jun 15 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $229 −$229 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 25? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $279 −$279 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4PM ET Jun 15 $360 −$389 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7AM ET Jun 15 $660 −$660 -100%
Solana Up or Down - September 30, 12PM ET Jun 15 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $215 −$215 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 12PM ET Jun 15 $155 −$155 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2PM ET Jun 15 $1,111 −$1,111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $243 −$243 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET Jun 15 $565 −$579 -102%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Jun 15 $1,140 −$1,123 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $176 −$176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 10? Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on August 27? Jun 15 $422 −$422 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on July 29 at 5PM ET? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 1, 12PM ET Jun 15 $293 −$293 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4PM ET Jun 15 $1,153 −$421 -36%
Solana Up or Down - November 4, 3PM ET Jun 15 $306 −$306 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 2AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on August 1? Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $550 −$550 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2PM ET Jun 15 $124 −$321 -259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$24 -185%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? Jun 15 $2,022 −$2,022 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5PM ET Jun 15 $735 −$735 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 15? Jun 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $279 −$279 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 28? Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 27? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 1? Jun 15 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 23? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $144 −$150 -104%
Solana Up or Down - September 29, 12AM ET Jun 15 $348 −$348 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4700 and $4800 on August 28 at Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 22? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9? Jun 15 $1,606 −$1,523 -95%
Solana Up or Down - October 17, 7AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $83 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 7¢ $255 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 7¢ $194 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 6¢ $414 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,493.56 · official $1,493.56 (match) · 3500 history records